As New England fishermen and processors prepare to face lower catches imposed by stringent new regulations, the annual report released by noted seafood consultant Howard M. Johnson predicts that demand for seafood – which jumped from 14.8 to 15.6 pounds per capita for 2002, the highest figure in a decade – could increase to 16 pounds per person by 2020.
Johnson, through his H.M. Johnson and Associates, has served as a consultant to fishing, seafood and supermarket businesses and government agencies in the United States and 10 foreign countries since 1989.
An increase of 0.4 pounds might not look like much, but factoring in changing demographics and population figures, this fraction of a pound turns into a nationwide increase in demand of between 4 and 5 billion pounds of seafood per year.
“Demand for seafood will only increase in the future, and the demand will be filled by someone – either New England or China,” said Johnson. “It’s up for grabs.” His report also predicts developing countries will produce 79 percent of the world’s seafood by 2020.
Amendment 13 to the federal groundfish management plan threatens the economic survival of a segment of the fishing industry and potentially threatens associated businesses as well. In order to be closer to the approved, abundant species and survive until federal managers allow catch increases, many Maine fishermen plan to fish out of Massachusetts ports.
If fishermen move south, their catches will be sold there, potentially hurting the Portland Fish Exchange and processors who buy fish locally. Industry observers fear the greatest impact new regulations will have is this loss of infrastructure, which usually means a loss of access to the waterfront as former seafood business and fishing property is sold for other uses, such as residential or retail.
“Once access is lost, it’s gone forever,” said Johnson. “Maine and New England need to try to preserve access because demand for seafood is going to increase, whether rebuilt stocks or aquaculture fill the demand.”
Johnson’s “Annual Report on the United States Seafood Industry” always provides a broad overview of wild landings and farmed product, supply and demand statistics, economic indicators as well as a report on consumer demand and attitudes, culled from international and national sources. The current report, the 11th edition, includes a summary of Seafood Vision 2020 (c), which predicts the demand increase.
One of Johnson’s sources, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) predicts little, if any, increases in catches of wild fish. Instead they foresee “tremendous growth potential in aquaculture,” according to the report. The International Food Policy Institute predicts the supremacy of developing nations, including China, in farmed seafood production.
“Whether stocks come back or states increase aquaculture, there’s an opportunity,” said Johnson. “Hawaii and Florida are doing a lot of work on deepwater ocean marine aquaculture. There’s more reason than ever for Maine aquaculture not to go away. And I don’t mean just salmon, but other species as well.”
One-third of the world’s seafood supply is already provided by aquaculture and this figure should rise to between 40 and 50 percent by 2020, the report said, adding, “it is likely that the top five seafoods consumed in the United States will all be produced entirely or in part from aquaculture.”
Shrimp tops the list of America’s best-selling seafood species – mostly farmed and imported, and mostly from Asia, and tilapia moved from tenth to ninth, edging out flatfish in only its second year on the top ten. Despite the high amount of imported Asian farmed products, the biggest foreign supplier to the U.S. seafood market is still Canada, with imports topping $2 billion.
While shrimp is expected to maintain its number one popularity, followed by salmon, tilapia and catfish, the report predicts a new species “or group of species – whitefish du jour – will supply the need for generic skinless, boneless ‘utility’ fish.” Some fish already in farmed production, such as basa, tra and channa, may be the ones that fill the bill.
While Johnson’s report does not separate Maine farmed salmon production specifically from the rest of the rest of the U.S. production, it’s clear by worldwide production charts that U.S. farms provide only a small percentage of the world supply. Chile, with Norway one of the two largest world producers, now even competes with wild Alaska salmon in the canned salmon market.
Catfish is the farming phenom of the U.S. With estimates of aquacultured products on the U.S. totaling between 950 million and one billion pounds for 2002, catfish contributed 603 million pounds. Some industry estimates say the steady increase in catfish production has fully offset the declines in domestic wild catches of cod, rockfish and other species.
A chart illustrating landings of Pacific and Atlantic cod since 1992 painted a bleak, decade-long picture. Below the chart’s title, “U.S. Cod Landings 1993-2002”, a sad subtitle states: “Still no Atlantic cod recovery in sight.”
New England is not alone in its codfish problems – the Newfoundland cod moratorium was declared in July of 1992 and cod still show little sign of returning in commercial numbers. Other Atlantic provinces also continue to have greatly reduced landings.
Some scientists say North Sea cod is at the lowest point in history and are calling for an outright ban on all cod fishing in the North Sea. Globally, the FAO says Atlantic cod landings have fallen from 3.9 million metric tons at the peak in 1968 to 944,000 tons in 2001.
Downturns in landings of some key stocks, and a slump in dollar value for seafood overall, meant seafood plants and employment “took a major hit in 2001” (the most recent available figures). Employment fell by 11,000 jobs and 77 processing plants went out of business from 2000 to 2001.
However, production of farmed cod is reportedly gaining ground in Europe. Johnson says some production of farmed species “blurs the line” between aquaculture and wild harvest – such as catching young cod and growing them out, or “fattening up” wild-caught tuna prior to marketing them.
Opportunities abound, said Johnson, if states and companies take a look at the markets and find the right niche. “People need to take a longer vision. The U.S. will need more fish and we will get it from someone,” said Johnson. “Down the road there’s a role for New England, whether it’s fishing or farming, but everyone needs to take a longer view.”