By the year 2020, annual seafood demand in the United States will increase by one billion pounds. Assuming that our per-capita seafood consumption remains at its current average of 15 pounds per year, that translates to roughly three billion more pounds of landed fish. Where will all that seafood come from?
The statistics and the question came from Howard M. Johnson, president of H.M. Johnson & Associates, an Oregon-based seafood planning, marketing and publishing company, as he opened a workshop at this year’s International Boston Seafood Show entitled “Fish of the Future: Emerging Species.”
Gauging by the number in attendance, there is strong interest among seafood industry leaders as to what will be the next source of seafood supply.
Johnson, who is editor and publisher of the annual trend-tracking “Report on the United States Seafood Industry,” moderated the discussion and presentations by the panelists. He predicted that U.S. per capita seafood consumption will increase in coming years as the nation’s population ages and becomes more health conscious. Wild fisheries alone will not be able to bear the added pressure to keep up with demand, he said. Farm raised fish will make up the difference.
Aquaculture has already made strong inroads at the Boston Seafood Show. Where five years ago there was only one exhibitor promoting tilapia, the tropical white-meat species, this year there were 20. Two years ago, tilapia won the National Fisheries Institute’s top-ten list of the most-consumed seafood species. The question on everybody’s mind at the Seafood Show: With that kind of success, what will be the next tilapia?
Speculating within the safe confines of the Seafood Show is one thing. But the real economic stakes are tremendous. Costs are high, risks are enormous, and if history is any lesson, competition will be fierce once a species becomes established in the marketplace. The margins for even the most successful ventures are slim. Anyone contemplating starting a new aquaculture venture these days must go in with their eyes wide open, and have completed a rigorous screening, research and development process.
Species Bingo
Many of today’s cultivated fish species made their initial market debut as substitutes for popular wild fish fallen on hard times: Black cod for Chilean sea bass, for example. Johnson said the coming decade will feature the establishment of farmed species replacing their own wild-harvested kin on the shelf including cod, haddock and halibut. “In addition to meeting increased market demand, we need new aquaculture species to enhance commercial and recreational fisheries and substitute for declining stocks,” said Johnson. The list of potentially marketable species mentioned at the workshop includes some familiar species along with some relatively unknown species like cobia, barramundi, and snakehead.