Hundreds of lobster fishermen turned out for 16 Department of Marine Resources meetings along the coast and islands in January to discuss the industry’s entry system, poor prices and the prospect that, despite record landings, the resource will one day decline.

Of the islands, approximately 50 fishermen turned out on Swan’s and 80 on Vinalhaven. Monhegan, Islesboro and North Haven attended the Deer Isle meeting via video conferencing, which drew about 150 people. Small venues were swapped for auditoriums to accommodate extensive interest.

A primary topic was a proposed tiered-licensing system, designed with the idea of eliminating latent effort, shortening wait-list times, and improving management to be able to cut trap numbers equitably should an expected resource decline occur.

The meetings resulted from an analysis completed by the Portland-based Gulf of Maine Research Institute, and were conducted in the wake of a year marked by record landings and low boat prices.

A central management measure established in 1997, limited-entry has unintentionally become, a near lockout for many looking to enter the industry. Would-be license-holders were once promised a wait of several years; many currently may languish for 10 to 30 years before receiving a license.

On Vinalhaven, there was strong support to continue to allow students to enter directly into the fishery. But there and elsewhere, license-holders also supported waiting list applicants.

“We hear loud and clear about students getting into the fishery,” said Keliher. “But we hear just as loud that people who may not be a student and who started late fishing and sterning should have the same ability to get a license and get into the fishery.”

The proposed system is expected to reduce or eliminate latent effort. According to the GMRI report, latent effort takes three forms: commercial licenses issued but not used; tags issued but not fished; and the potential traps associated with licenses holders who don’t buy the maximum allowable number of tags.

Eliminating latency, said Keliher, will also aid compliance with federal whale rules, taking effect in 2014.

“Every tag we sell, the feds count it as a trap in the water, even when it’s not,” said Keliher.

It is also expected to correct structural problems with the current system: There are few license holders between age 23 and 40, but that’s the age bracket of most people on the waiting list.

Also, said DMR officials, the new system could help to equitably reduce trap numbers in the water if the resource were to decline. Keliher said there is no biological reason to reduce effort right now.

“But if it should happen, traps are the primary management tool and needs to be improved,” he said.

He said that, although more fishermen will be on the water, the proposed system—a tiered concept with varying trap limits at each tier—is expected to keep the overall number of traps at current levels, and perhaps even cut that number back.

Many fishermen urged caution.

They agreed the current system is a barrier for graduates from the state-required apprentice program. But some license-holders said there might not be room for higher numbers of fishermen.

Others said the proposed system could backfire. They said it forces people to fish the maximum trap numbers because they’re required to demonstrate landing history to remain in a tier.

Keliher said the conversation is somewhat different for offshore islands, which are allowed to establish their own entry systems, and for Zone C, an open zone which allows new fishermen to enter without a waiting list.

Keliher called Maine’s lobster industry the “backbone of the coastal economy.” The lobster industry represents $900 million of the state’s $1 billion in total commercial fisheries earnings.

Despite 2012’s record 123 million pounds in landings, an increase of 18 million pounds over 2011, the value was $331 million, down $3.7 million from the previous year.

State Biologist Carl Wilson said the resource has fluctuated in the past, but he expected evolving ocean conditions to affect the future more than ever.

“I think, when you have a 123-million-pound fishery and a $331-million value, and people worry they’re just getting by with that, we have a problem for the coast,” said Wilson. “Ninety percent of the value coming in is out of one fishery. I don’t necessarily know where we’re going. I’m trying to figure it out, trying to have some indicators to say, ‘Mission Control, we have a problem.'”

“We’re not here to talk about effort reduction,” said Keliher. “We’re here to talk about strategically trying to put you in a good position for the future.  If there’s no interest in doing it coastwide, I don’t want to do it. There is, I would say, a good amount of interest in the concept—with a lot of people nervous about the details.” The DMR’s proposal for a tier-licensing system, said said Keliher, is “to have a licensing system capable of responding efficiently to a decline in the resource. And, associated with that, trying to balance entry and exit in the fishery, recognizing that we’ve got differences by region and zones.”

The proposed system sets up three tiers of 50, 400 and 800 tags (the numbers, except the existing 800-tag cap, are not cast in stone, said Keliher.)

Existing license-holders land on a tier based on their best landings over the past four years. Those with no landings get 50 tags. A landings history and waiting period move them to 400.

Those with landings below the 25th percentile of active licenses get 400 tags. The 25th percentile is quite lenient. For example, in Zone A, the threshold is 4,735 pounds. They can move to 800 through an entry/exit ratio.

The 800 tier comprises landings above the 25th percentile.

In Zone A, the 25 percent threshold is 4,735 pounds; Zone B, 6097; Zone C, 8,090; Zone D, 5,764; Zone E, 2,295; Zone F, 2, 963; Zone G, 2,105.

For new entrants, entry/advancement includes:

“¢ Limited apprentice program to get 50 tags;

“¢ Complete apprentice program with no waiting period initially for 400. Students go through apprenticeship; no waiting period.

“¢ Significant landings history to move to 800. Students subject to waiting list.

The proposal doesn’t touch the student program, but some work needs to be done on that program anyway, said Keliher. The current program “pushes” students to work, and some have dropped out of school. “That part needs to be fixed,” he said. People should also not be penalized for going to college or the military.

Importantly, people stuck on waiting lists for five years or more will be able to get a license.

Kenny Lemoine of Swan’s Island suggested the situation is complicated by the probability that people on the waiting lists have other livelihoods at this point, and might take a while to gear up if they get a chance to fish.

Swan’s has a conservation zone with a lower trap cap of 475 (fishermen there are currently debating whether to raise the cap, possibly to 600), and would be one of the areas that would have to figure out how a tier system would work for under the specific regime.

Myron “Sonny” Sprague of Swan’s Island said the offshore islands should be treated differently, in any case.

“You take a young person from the island who wants to be a fisherman, but he can’t afford to wait,” said Sprague. “So he’ll have to go to the mainland to get a job, because there are no part-time jobs to supplement the bracket in-between.”

One Vinalhaven fisherman said entry issues should be left to local zone control. If the concept were adopted, Keliher said, it could be integrated into the zone process.

Another Vinalhaven fisherman commented, “I see big changes coming, and somewhere along the line, someone’s going to lose out. That’s what’s happened to us in the past, and it’s happened in the fishing industry all across the United States.”

Laurie Schreiber is a freelance contributor living in Bass Harbor.